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A Bayesian method for transformer life estimation using Perks' hazard function
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DOI：10.1109/TPWRS.2006.881129.png)
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摘要
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This paper introduces PJM Interconnection's new method to model and predict transformers' service lives. A simplified Perks' equation is used to model the hazard rates, which will be used synonymously with retirement rates in this paper, of transmission transformers. A Bayesian Method is used to model the uncertainty in the three parameters of Perks' equation. This method is different from the traditional Iowa Curve method in that: 1) it gives a continuous family of transformer life distributions as well as the extinction likelihoods, rather than a limited number of distribution patterns and 2) a closed-form distribution can also be deduced with only three parameters, which can assume all the three distribution patterns of Iowa Curves: right, left, and symmetrically modal. The method has been successfully applied to the statistics on hundreds of large electric transformers in PJM. Example problems are provided and solved with this new method.
Keyword:
asset management
Bayesian parameter estimation
Iowa Curve
life of large electric transformer
Perks' equation
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