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A risk assessment framework for interacting tipping elements
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DOI：10.5194/esd-17-333-2026.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Abstract. Tipping elements; such as the Greenland Ice Sheet; the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) or the Amazon rainforest; interact with one another and with other non-linear systems such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In doing so; the risk of any one element being degraded can be drastically affected; typically increasing due to the interactions. Therefore; in this work we propose a fully probabilistic network model for risk assessment of interacting tipping elements that coherently incorporates literature-based expert assessments of inter-element interactions. For fixed levels of global warming; we provide analytic results for the risk of being degraded for 8 interacting tipping elements and ENSO at equilibrium; including the stability of and convergence times to this equilibrium solution. Moreover we simulate their tipping risks until 2350 using emission pathways from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP 1-1.9; 1-2.6; 2-4.5; 3-7.0; and 5-8.5). Compared to the interaction-free baseline; we find that interactions tend to destabilise the climate system. For instance the coral reefs are likely to have collapsed by 2100 even under the most optimistic scenario (SSP1-1.9). The effects of interactions; however; are most noticeable after 2100; especially for the SSP scenarios with the strongest greenhouse gas emissions (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). In summary; our risk assessment framework for tipping elements and ENSO indicates that rapid mitigation is essential to keep temperatures as close as possible to 1.5 °C in the short term and below 1 °C in the longer run.
Keywords:
tipping elements
climate risk
probabilistic network model
global warming
interacting systems
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