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A simulation-optimization framework for optimizing response strategies to epidemics

delete2021-01-01
delete7
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OA
AI
M
Melissa Gillis
R
Ryley Urban
A
Ahmed Saif *
N
Noreen Kamal
M
Matthew Murphy
DOI:10.1016/j.orp.2021.100210delete
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摘要

摘要

En 中文
Epidemics require dynamic response strategies that encompass a multitude of policy alternatives and that balance health, economic and societal considerations. We propose a simulation-optimization framework to aid policymakers select closure, protection and travel policies to minimize the total number of infections under a limited budget. The proposed framework combines a modified, age-stratified SEIR compartmental model to evaluate the health impact of response strategies and a Genetic Algorithm to effectively search for better strategies. We implemented our framework on a real case study in Nova Scotia to devise optimized response strategies to COVID-19 under different budget scenarios and found a clear trade-off between health and economic considerations. Closure policies seem to be the most sensitive to policy restrictions, followed by travel policies. On the other hand, results suggest that practising social distancing and wearing masks are necessary whenever their economic impacts are bearable. The framework is generic and can be extended to encompass vaccination policies and to use different epidemiological models and optimization methods.
Keyword:
Decision support systems
Simulation-optimization
Epidemics
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期刊

Operations Research Perspectives 封面图
Operations Research Perspectives
IF:
3.7
论文数:
288
被引数:
951

机构

N
Nova Scotia Health Authority
学者数:
501
论文数: 259
被引数: 730
D
Dalhousie University
学者数:
2.0W
论文数: 1.8W
被引数: 2.3W
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