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A single-loop reliability analysis strategy for time-dependent problems with small failure probability
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DOI：10.1016/j.ress.2021.108230.png)
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摘要
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In recent years, many time-dependent reliability methods have been proposed. However, these kinds of methods are barely applied in the field of small failure probability events. This paper proposes an efficient time-dependent reliability method based on the Kriging model and the importance sampling (IS) method. The new method is a single-loop strategy, which can obtain the failure probability varying with time. For complex reliability problems, the failure region usually includes multiple sub-regions, which is challenging to deal with though the traditional IS methods (such as the first-order reliability method-based IS method (FORM-IS) and the kerneldensity-estimation-based IS method (KDE-IS)). In this paper, we improve the KDE-IS method to ensure that the sample points cover all the failure sub-regions as far as possible. Aiming at selecting a sample point that can improve the accuracy of failure probability effectively to refresh the Kriging model, this paper proposes a new criterion for selecting the best training point. For accuracy, a new stopping criterion is also defined. Finally, the efficiency and accuracy of the new method are verified by four examples.
Keyword:
Time-dependent reliability
Importance sampling
The Kriging model
Kernel-density estimation
Small failure probability event
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11
论文数:
9.0K
被引数:
4.2W
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