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A Stochastic Recurrent Encoder Decoder Network for Multistep Probabilistic Wind Power Predictions
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DOI：10.1109/TNNLS.2023.3234130.png)
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In this article, a stochastic recurrent encoder decoder neural network (SREDNN), which considers latent random variables in its recurrent structures, is developed for the first time for the generative multistep probabilistic wind power predictions (MPWPPs). The SREDNN enables the stochastic recurrent model under the encoder-decoder framework to engage exogenous covariates to produce better MPWPP. The SREDNN consists of five components, the prior network, the inference network, the generative network, the encoder recurrent network, and the decoder recurrent network. The SREDNN is equipped with two critical advantages compared with conventional RNN-based methods. First, the integration over the latent random variable builds an infinite Gaussian mixture model (IGMM) as the observation model, which drastically increases the expressiveness of the wind power distribution. Secondly, hidden states of the SREDNN are updated in a stochastic way, which builds an infinite mixture of the IGMM for describing the ultimate wind power distribution and enables the SREDNN to model complex patterns across wind speed and wind power sequences. Computational experiments are conducted on a dataset of a commercial wind farm having 25 wind turbines (WTs) and two publicly assessable WT datasets to verify the advantages and effectiveness of the SREDNN for MPWPP. Experimental results show that the SREDNN achieves a lower negative form of the continuously ranked probability score (CRPS* ) as well as a superior sharpness and comparable reliability of prediction intervals by comparing against considered benchmarking models. Results also show the clear benefit gained from considering latent random variables in SREDNN.
Keyword:
Wind power generation
Stochastic processes
Random variables
Predictive models
Time series analysis
Wind speed
Probabilistic logic
Data-driven models
deep neural networks (DNNs)
multistep probabilistic wind power prediction (MPWPP)
stochastic recurrent network
time series analysis
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8.9
论文数:
7.5K
被引数:
7.2W
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引用论文
Short-term forecasting and uncertainty analysis of wind turbine power based on long short-term memory network and Gaussian mixture model基于长短期记忆网络和高斯混合模型的风电机组功率短期预测及不确定性分析.png)
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