AADT prediction using support vector regression with data-dependent parameters

doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2008.01.073

2009-03-01

PRE

DOI：10.1016/j.eswa.2008.01.073

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摘要

En 中文

Traffic volume is a fundamental variable in several transportation engineering applications. For instance, in transportation planning, the annual average daily traffic (AADT) is a primary element that has to be estimated for the year of horizon of the analysis. The huge amounts of money to be invested in designed transportation systems are strongly associated with the traffic volumes expected in the system, which means that it is important that the AADT should be accurately predicted. fit this paper, a modified version of a pattern recognition technique known as support vector machine for regression (SVR) to forecast AADT is presented. The proposed methodology computes the SVR prediction parameters based oil the distribution of the training data. Therefore, the proposed method is called SVR with data-dependent parameters (SVR-DP). Using 20 years of AADT for both rural and urban roads in 25 counties in the state of Tennessee, the performance of the SVR-DP was compared with those of Holt exponential smoothing (Holt-ES) and of ordinary least-square linear regression (OLS-regression). SVR-DP performed better than both methods; although the Holt-ES also presented good results. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keyword:

Support vector regression

Support vector machine

Time series analysis

Traffic volume prediction