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Achieving efficiency in quantitative risk analysis process - Application on infrastructure projects
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DOI：10.1016/j.asej.2020.07.032.png)
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摘要
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Infrastructure Projects (IP) are characterised by their extreme complexity in construction and management. Lack of effective risk analysis in construction of IP can cause failure in projects delivery. This paper aims to produce specific guidelines for the efficient application of quantitative risk analysis process. The literature guided contractors into efficient quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of IP to improve contractors QRA practices in the presence of uncertainty during the construction stage. The paper reviewed the literature of QRA process in construction of IP, and then performed a full quantitative risk analysis on a case study of IP in Egypt. The study includes sewage networks, water networks, irrigation networks, and district cooling networks of Cairo festival city project. The paper used an infrastructure schedule to apply the quantitative risk analysis. The schedule included activities for the construction of sewage networks, irrigation network, water network, and district cooling network. Based on the findings, Monte Carlo analysis technique has proved to be an efficient quantitative technique in supporting project managers in allocating deviations. Whereas, sensitivity analysis technique helped in ranking the most driving activities to failure in delivery of IP. The paper added value by providing knowledge and practical guidance for contractors in improving their QRA practice and decision making during the construction of IP. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University.
Keyword:
Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA)
Risk management
Monte Carlo analysis
Infrastructure Projects (IP)
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