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Adaptive and high-precision grey forecasting model

delete2009-08-01
delete73
PRE
AI
Y
Yong‐Huang Lin
P
Pin‐Chan Lee *
T
Ta‐Peng Chang
DOI:10.1016/j.eswa.2008.12.009delete
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摘要

摘要

En 中文
Although the grey forecasting model has been successfully employed in various fields and demonstrated promising results, literatures show its performance still could be improved. Therefore, a new model named EFGMm(1, 1) is proposed in this paper by eliminating the error term resulted from the traditional calculation of background value with an integration equation to substitute for such error term. In addition, Fourier series and exponential smooth technique have also been integrated into the new model to reduce the periodic and stochastic residual errors, respectively. An illustrative example of building material stock index is adopted for demonstration. Results show that the proposed model can increase the prediction accuracy, particularly when the system is instable. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keyword:
Background value
Building material stock index
Exponential smooth technique
Fourier series
Grey forecasting model
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期刊

Expert Systems with Applications 封面图
Expert Systems with Applications
IF:
7.5
论文数:
3.0W
被引数:
10.2W

机构

N
national taiwan university of science & technology
学者数:
8.8K
论文数: 8.7K
被引数: 9
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