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Anchored Inflation Expectationst
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DOI：10.1257/mac.20200080.png)
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摘要
En 中文
We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expec-tations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of inflation and infla-tion expectations for the United States and other countries over the postwar period. In our theory, long-run inflation expectations are endogenous. They are driven by short-run inflation surprises, in a way that depends on recent forecasting performance and mone-tary policy. This distinguishes our theory from common explana-tions of low-frequency properties of inflation. The model, estimated using only inflation and short-term forecasts from professional sur-veys, accurately predicts observed measures of long-term inflation expectations and identifies episodes of unanchored expectations. (JEL D83, D84, E12, E23, E31, E37, E52)
Keyword:
MONETARY-POLICY RULES
IMPERFECT KNOWLEDGE
US INFLATION
MODEL
UNCERTAINTY
INFORMATION
PERSISTENCE
BELIEFS
SHOCKS
期刊
A
IF:
5.7
论文数:
1.4K
被引数:
4.4K
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