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Average conditional correlation and tree structures for multivariate GARCH models

delete2006-01-01
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Francesco Audrino *
G
Giovanni Barone‐Adesi
DOI:10.1002/for.1014delete
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摘要

摘要

En 中文
We propose a simple class of multivariate GARCH models, allowing for time-varying conditional correlations. Estimates for time-varying conditional correlations are constructed by means of a convex combination of averaged correlations (across all series) and dynamic realized (historical) correlations. Our model is very parsimonious. Estimation is computationally feasible in very large dimensions without resorting to any variance reduction technique. We back-test the models on a six-dimensional exchange-rate time series using different goodness-of-fit criteria and statistical tests. We collect empirical evidence of their strong predictive power, also in comparison to alternative benchmark procedures. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Keyword:
multivariate GARCH models
dynamic conditional correlations
tree-structured GARCH models
model confidence set approach
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Journal of Forecasting 封面图
Journal of Forecasting
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