返回
Balancing climate and development goals
DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/abbe46.png)
摘要
En 中文
Decarbonizing the energy system is a major challenge facing the richest countries, whereas provision of energy services is a major challenge facing the poorest countries. What would be the climate consequences if only richer countries focus on decarbonization, and only poorer countries focus on provision of energy services? To address this question, we create future scenarios in which carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increase according to a historical trend and then start to decline only when countries reach specified income levels. In our central case, we assume that when countries start to decarbonize, they reduce emissions at 2% yr(-1). With this assumption and if all countries begin to decarbonize in 2020, the world would be expected to warm by 2.0 degrees C relative to pre-industrial times. If countries begin to decarbonize only when their per capita gross domestic product (GDP) exceeds $10 000, there would be less than 0.3 degrees C of additional warming. Yet over half the world's population currently lives in countries below such an income threshold, and continued direct CO2 emissions by people who live in these countries, while they remain underdeveloped, would increase global average temperature rise by 14% relative to the case, in which all people begin to decarbonize in 2020. The primary concern of developments driven by fossil fuels in lower income countries might relate to issues such as the technological lock-in to high-emission technologies.
Keyword:
decarbonization
development
global warming
期刊
IF:
5.6
论文数:
9.5K
被引数:
5.0W
机构
引用论文
Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets
NATURE GEOSCIENCE
IF16.1
Barriers to renewable/sustainable energy technologies adoption: Indian perspective采用可再生/可持续能源技术的障碍: 印度的观点
COMMENTARY: The challenge to keep global warming below 2°C评论: 将全球变暖保持在2 °C以下的挑战
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
IF27.1
Molecular genetic characterization of six recessive viable alleles of the mouse agouti locus.
Genetics
IF0
The Delphi method as a research tool: an example, design considerations and applications作为研究工具的Delphi方法: 示例,设计注意事项和应用

