.png){kind=icon}
返回
Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method
.png){kind=icon}
OA
AI
DOI：10.1007/s13524-015-0389-y.png)
.png){kind=icon}
.png){kind=icon}
分享.png){kind=icon}
收藏
摘要
En 中文
In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information. To illustrate, we analyze time series data for the United Kingdom and forecast the components of population change to the year 2024. We also compare the results obtained from different forecast models for age-specific fertility, mortality, and migration. In doing so, we demonstrate the flexibility and advantages of adopting the Bayesian approach for population forecasting and highlight areas where this work could be extended.
Keyword:
Bayesian
Lee-Carter model
Population forecasting
uncertainty
United Kingdom
AI总结
对已上传原文的论文进行重点信息的提取，主要内容包括：简要概述、研究摘要、背景介绍、关键亮点、图文解析、展望与总结。
期刊
IF:
3.6
论文数:
2.5K
被引数:
9.3K
机构
引用论文
分享收藏Exploring a nonperturbative method for calculation of the anomalous magnetic moment of the electron探索一种非微扰方法用于计算电子的反常磁矩
OAAI
OAAI分享收藏Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migrationOAAI
OAAI分享收藏Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the Lee-Carter method.png)
DEMOGRAPHYOAAI
DEMOGRAPHYIF3.6
OAAI分享收藏
查看更多内容