Climate Simulators and Climate Projections

doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-022513-115652

2014-01-03

PRE

J Rougier *

Michael Goldstein

DOI：10.1146/annurev-statistics-022513-115652

原文链接

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摘要

En 中文

We provide a statistical interpretation of current practice in climate modeling. In this review, we define weather and climate, clarify the relationship between simulator output and simulator climate, distinguish between a climate simulator and a statistical climate model, provide a statistical interpretation of the ubiquitous practice of anomaly correction along with a substantial generalization (the best-parameter approach), and interpret simulator/data comparisons as posterior predictive checking, including a simple adjustment to allow for double counting. We also discuss statistical approaches to simulator tuning, assessing parametric uncertainty, and responding to unrealistic outputs. We finish with a more general discussion of larger themes.

Keyword:

climate modeling

tuning

history matching

anomaly model

best-parameter model

model criticism

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期刊

Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application

IF:

8.7

论文数:

211

被引数:

2.4K

机构

Durham University

学者数:

1.3W

论文数: 1.5W

被引数: 2.1W

University of Bristol

学者数:

3.1W

论文数: 3.0W

被引数: 5.3W

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