Climate variability in Jordan

doi:10.1002/joc.1512

2007-05-29

PRE

Muwaffaq Freıwan *

Mikdat Kadıoğlu

DOI：10.1002/joc.1512

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摘要

En 中文

Climate variability in Jordan is very sensitive to water resources, which are at the verge of depletion because annual per-capita water is at one of the lowest levels in the world. In order to address such sensitivity, it is necessary to examine effective meteorological factors such as annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation and extreme (maximum and minimum) temperature time series. Fourteen representative meteorological stations are chosen for the study of climate variability calculations in Jordan. Annual and monthly time series of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures are tested by the runs (Swed-Eisenhart) homogeneity test. Consequently, the sequential version of the Mann-Kendall rank trend and the linear trend tests are applied to the interannual means, coefficient of variation and skewness parameters. Signals of climate trends such as warming in maximum temperature, more statistically significant warming in minimum temperature, decreasing trends in daily temperature range and statistically insignificant decreasing precipitation trends are detected, which are enhanced by heat island, urbanization, pollution and aerosols effects. Two spells are recognized in the time series, where the first spell started in the early 1970s and the second beyond the year 1992 with a warming trend in maximum temperature and a farther warming in minimum temperature resulting in a decreasing trend in the diurnal temperature range that is associated with a slight decrease in precipitation. The interannual coefficient of variation of maximum and minimum temperatures reveals increasing trends in the majority of the stations while they exhibit an apparent decreasing trend in diurnal temperature range and a general, but insignificant, decreasing trend in precipitation is observed. Copyright (C) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society.

Keyword:

climate variability

coefficient of variation

homogeneity test

Jordan

Kriging

kurtosis

Mann-Kendall trend test

skewness