Climate variation drives dengue dynamics

doi:10.1073/pnas.1618558114

2016-12-09

164

Liu Qiyong (Qiyong Liu) *

Nils Chr. Stenseth *

DOI：10.1073/pnas.1618558114

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摘要

En 中文

Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005-2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics-years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies.

Keyword:

dengue

climate

structural equation model

zero-inflated generalized additive models

prediction

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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

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9.1

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10.8W

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73.5W

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University of Iowa

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national institute for communicable disease control & prevention, chinese center for disease control & prevention

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China Meteorological Administration

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university of oslo

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institute of psychology, cas

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chinese academy of sciences

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被引数: 704

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