Combining probability forecasts

Michael P. Clements

doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.12.016

Combining probability forecasts

2011-04-01

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DOI：10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.12.016

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We consider different methods for combining probability forecasts. In empirical exercises, the data generating process of the forecasts and the event being forecast is not known, and therefore the optimal form of combination will also be unknown. We consider the properties of various combination schemes for a number of plausible data generating processes, and indicate which types of combinations are likely to be useful. We also show that whether forecast encompassing is found to hold between two rival sets of forecasts or not may depend on the type of combination adopted. The relative performances of the different combination methods are illustrated, with an application to predicting recession probabilities using leading indicators. (C) 2010 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keyword:

Probability forecasts

Forecast combinations

Recession probabilities

Combining probability forecasts

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