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Constructive decision theory

delete2016-12-01
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Glenn Shafer *
DOI:10.1016/j.ijar.2015.12.010delete
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摘要

摘要

En 中文
We sketch a theory of decision that allows us to construct both goals and degrees of belief. Before choosing an action, we create and weight goals. We represent our beliefs about the consequences of each action by constructing a belief function on the set of possible consequences. Then we combine the beliefs and goals to see the value that will be secured and the value that will be excluded by each action. This approach is more constructive than Bayesian decision theory, because as Savage's problem of small worlds teaches us, that theory assumes preferences that antedate deliberation. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Keyword:
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PROBABILITY
ELICITATION
JUDGMENT
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期刊

International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 封面图
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
IF:
3
论文数:
3.0K
被引数:
5.1K

机构

U
University of Kansas
学者数:
1.9W
论文数: 1.7W
被引数: 8.1K
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