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Context-driven cold-start Web traffic forecasting

delete2025-09-30
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OA
AI
X
Xin Zhou
W
Weiqing Wang *
W
Wray Buntine
C
Christoph Bergmeir
DOI:10.1007/s11280-025-01359-7delete
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摘要

摘要

En 中文
冷启动预测在动态场景中至关重要,因为在可观测趋势出现之前,早期预测会驱动关键决策,例如内容优先级排序、资源分配和需求估计。在本工作中,我们探索了多模态预测技术在冷启动预测中的潜力,并提供了关于设计更可扩展和自适应模型的见解。具体而言,我们针对基于上下文的冷启动网页流量预测进行研究,该方法包括相关网页的文本内容和历史网页流量,以在目标新网页无历史数据时生成预测。为推动该领域的研究,我们收集、清理并对齐了一个高维、多模态的网页流量数据集。我们采用了检索增强生成(Retrieval-Augmented Generation)框架,并提出了使用大型语言模型(LLMs)来完成此项任务。我们的实验表明,基于LLMs的策略在多个预测时间范围内均优于统计基准模型。表现最佳的基于LLMs的模型相较于其他方法,将WRMSPE降低了0.81%,WAPE降低了4.5%。此外,基于LLMs的特征提取增强了上下文理解能力,从而提高了长期预测的稳定性。
Keyword:
Web traffic analysis
Cold-start
Multimodal
Time series forecasting

期刊

W
World Wide Web
IF:
0
论文数:
68
被引数:
0

机构

C
College of Engineering and Computer Science
学者数:
60
论文数: 40
被引数: 0
引用论文

引用论文

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