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Contingent behavior modeling for dark skies valuation at Great Sand Dunes National Park
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DOI：10.1002/ajae.70080.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Dark sky conservation is increasingly popular, requiring facility upgrades and community cooperation. This study assesses its economic benefits at Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve, a Gold Tier International Dark Sky Park. Through on-site surveys, we collected data on visitor behaviors, expenditures, and night sky perceptions. We introduced a continuum of contingent night sky brightness levels based on visitors' home locations and measured changes in visitation. Our Travel Cost-Contingent Behavior analysis shows that each unit increase in nightlight decreases visitation by 0.05 days over 5 years. Using a weighted Latent Class Negative Binomial (LCNB) model, we estimate consumer welfare losses under escalating nightlight pollution scenarios. If the park's night skies matched an average rural, suburban, or urban area, visitors' consumer surplus would fall by about 3%, 23–24%, and 42–44%, respectively. These results underscore the substantial economic value of preserving dark skies.
Keywords:
contingent behavior model
dark sky conservation
ecotourism
latent class
national park
negative binomial
nightlight pollution
survey methods
tourism
travel cost model
willingness-to-pay
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