.png){kind=icon}
返回
Correcting for Optimistic Prediction in Small Data Sets
.png){kind=icon}
OA
AI
DOI：10.1093/aje/kwu140.png)
.png){kind=icon}
.png){kind=icon}
分享.png){kind=icon}
收藏
摘要
En 中文
The C statistic is a commonly reported measure of screening test performance. Optimistic estimation of the C statistic is a frequent problem because of overfitting of statistical models in small data sets, and methods exist to correct for this issue. However, many studies do not use such methods, and those that do correct for optimism use diverse methods, some of which are known to be biased. We used clinical data sets (United Kingdom Down syndrome screening data from Glasgow (1991-2003), Edinburgh (1999-2003), and Cambridge (1990-2006), as well as Scottish national pregnancy discharge data (2004-2007)) to evaluate different approaches to adjustment for optimism. We found that sample splitting, cross-validation without replication, and leave-1-out cross-validation produced optimism-adjusted estimates of the C statistic that were biased and/or associated with greater absolute error than other available methods. Cross-validation with replication, bootstrapping, and a new method (leave-pairout cross-validation) all generated unbiased optimism-adjusted estimates of the C statistic and had similar absolute errors in the clinical data set. Larger simulation studies confirmed that all 3 methods performed similarly with 10 or more events per variable, or when the C statistic was 0.9 or greater. However, with lower events per variable or lower C statistics, bootstrapping tended to be optimistic but with lower absolute and mean squared errors than both methods of cross-validation.
Keyword:
logistic models
models
statistical
multivariate analysis
receiver operating characteristic curve
AI总结
对已上传原文的论文进行重点信息的提取，主要内容包括：简要概述、研究摘要、背景介绍、关键亮点、图文解析、展望与总结。
期刊
IF:
4.8
论文数:
10.0K
被引数:
3.7W
机构
引用论文
分享收藏Internal validation of predictive models: Efficiency of some procedures for logistic regression analysis预测模型的内部验证: 逻辑回归分析的某些程序的效率
PREAI
分享收藏
Negative Perceptions of Aging and Decline in Walking Speed: A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy对衰老和步行速度下降的负面看法: 自我实现的预言.png)
PLOS ONEOAAI
PLOS ONEIF0
OAAI分享收藏
查看更多内容