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Correlation Misperception in Choice
DOI:10.1257/aer.20160093.png)
Abstract
En 中文
We present a decision-theoretic analysis of an agent's understanding of the interdependencies in her choices. We provide the foundations for a simple and flexible model that allows the misperception of correlated risks. We introduce a framework in which the decision maker chooses a portfolio of assets among which she may misperceive the joint returns, and present simple axioms equivalent to a representation in which she attaches a probability to each possible joint distribution over returns and then maximizes subjective expected utility using her (possibly misspecified) beliefs.
Keywords:
CORRELATION NEGLECT
EQUILIBRIUM
UTILITY
REPRESENTATION
PREFERENCES
INFORMATION
OPINIONS
BEHAVIOR
RISK
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