Counterfactual Desirability

doi:10.1093/bjps/axv023

2017-06-01

Richard Bradley *

H. Orri Stefánsson

DOI：10.1093/bjps/axv023

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摘要

En 中文

The desirability of what actually occurs is often influenced by what could have been. Preferences based on such value dependencies between actual and counterfactual outcomes generate a class of problems for orthodox decision theory, the best-known perhaps being the so-called Allais paradox. In this article we solve these problems by extending Richard Jeffrey's decision theory to counterfactual prospects, using a multidimensional possible-world semantics for conditionals, and showing that preferences that are sensitive to counterfactual considerations can still be desirability-maximizing. We end the article by investigating the conditions necessary and sufficient for a desirability function to be a standard expected-utility function. It turns out that the additional conditions imply highly implausible epistemic principles.

Keyword:

DECISION-THEORY

UTILITY

RISK

CONDITIONALS

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期刊

British Journal of Political Science

IF:

4.7

论文数:

2.2K

被引数:

6.7K

机构

London School Economics and Political Science

学者数:

3.8K

论文数: 3.2K

被引数: 40

university of london

学者数:

21.5W

论文数: 19.7W

被引数: 305

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