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Current account balances and output volatility
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DOI：10.1016/j.econmod.2013.04.032.png)
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En 中文
In this paper, we examine the empirical relationship between current account balance and output volatility in a panel data framework using annual data from 185 countries over the period from 1950 to 2010. In our static panel data analysis, we find that a larger current account deficit is associated with higher output volatility, particularly for emerging market economies. Our analysis reveals that this association strongly interacts with GDP per-capita. In order to account for possible endogeneity and feedback effects, we also employ a Panel-VAR framework and show that output volatility gives a significant positive response to a shock in the current account balance and a negative response to the shocks on GDP per-capita capita. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keyword:
Current account balances
Business cycle volatility
Panel data
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