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Dependence of subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction on atmospheric and land initial conditions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model
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DOI：10.1007/s00382-026-08320-y.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) scale prediction, especially precipitation prediction, depends predominantly on initial conditions. To examine the impacts of atmospheric and land initial conditions on the predictions of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and related S2S precipitation, we conduct a novel study using coupled atmosphere-land simulations in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Our findings indicate that reanalysis-based atmospheric and land initial conditions yield improved S2S precipitation simulations compared with those using a long-term spin-up equilibrium state. The impacts of initial conditions on precipitation simulation persist for approximately 40 and 50 days in the MJO and global regions, respectively, and are strongly associated with outgoing longwave radiation in the MJO region and surface latent heat flux at the global scale. Although atmospheric initial conditions exert a dominant influence on MJO simulation, improved land initial conditions provide an important secondary source of predictability by better representing land–atmosphere coupling over the Maritime Continent. More realistic surface moisture fluxes and surface temperature can modulate boundary-layer moistening and MJO-related convection, thereby contributing to improved MJO prediction. These findings have important implications for S2S precipitation prediction and provide crucial insights for the further development of Earth system models.
Keywords:
Subseasonal to seasonal
Precipitation
Initial conditions
Madden-Julian oscillation
Energy Exascale Earth System Model
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3.7
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8.8K
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2.9W
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