.png){kind=icon}
返回
Developing Key Indicators for Adaptive Water Planning
.png){kind=icon}
PRE
AI
DOI：10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000471.png)
.png){kind=icon}
原文求助.png){kind=icon}
分享.png){kind=icon}
收藏
摘要
En 中文
With hard-to-predict changes in future demand, climate, supply options, technological opportunities, and budgetary constraints, water agency plans should be flexible and robust, designed to meet agency goals over a wide range of plausible future conditions. But current state-of-the-art approaches to water planning make it difficult to craft flexible and robust plans to guide resource allocation and facilitate discussions with the agency's constituents and ratepayers. This paper describes an innovative effort by one agency, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (termed Metropolitan), to begin to address these challenges. Metropolitan's year 2010 integrated resources plan (IRP) update specifies resource allocations over 25years and calls for an adaptive management approach to revisit these allocations over time. Using a quantitative decision support approach called robust decision-making (RDM), an enhanced version of Metropolitan's main planning model was run, over many thousands of cases representing different combinations of assumptions about future demand, conditions in the bay/delta, climate conditions, local resource yields, and implementation challenges. Statistical cluster analysis on the resulting database of model runs identifies scenarios that succinctly summarize the types of future conditions in which the IRP core resources strategy does and does not meet its goals. These scenarios inform early warning indicators that can guide the adaptive management component of the IRP. The robust decision methods presented in this paper should prove broadly useful for Metropolitan in addition to other water agencies seeking to develop robust and adaptive plans in the face of uncertain future conditions.
Keyword:
CLIMATE-CHANGE UNCERTAINTIES
ROBUST
DECISIONS
HYDROLOGY
RESOURCES
AI总结
对已上传原文的论文进行重点信息的提取，主要内容包括：简要概述、研究摘要、背景介绍、关键亮点、图文解析、展望与总结。
期刊
IF:
4.7
论文数:
8.1K
被引数:
1.6W
机构
引用论文
Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world动态适应性政策路径: 一种为高度不确定的世界制定稳健决策的方法
OAAI
.png){kind=icon}
OAAI分享收藏分享收藏
Improving the contribution of climate model information to decision making: the value and demands of robust decision frameworks提高气候模型信息对决策的贡献: 稳健决策框架的价值和要求
PREAI
分享收藏
查看更多内容