Discounting expected values with parameter uncertainty

doi:10.1016/S0929-1199(02)00020-2

2003-11-01

PRE

Laurence Booth

DOI：10.1016/S0929-1199(02)00020-2

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摘要

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In valuing future cash flows, the standard practice is to take the current cash flow and then extrapolate at an expected growth rate, which can vary at different points in time. This practice stems from the standard way of dealing with time value of money problems under certainty. However, with uncertain cash flows, this practice underestimates the expected cash flows when the growth rates are serially correlated. As a result, both value and the equity cost, calculated as an internal rate of return, are biased low. Given the prevalence of serial correlation in the economy, this paper demonstrates how to incorporate the effects of serial correlation in a simple way and demonstrates by way of a simulation that the effects can be significant. As a result, it casts doubt on the usefulness of several standard valuation approaches and results. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Keyword:

cash flow

growth rate

equity cost