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Dissolved oxygen dynamics in shallow lakes under climate change: Synergistic modulation by nutrient loading
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DOI：10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135565.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Under the dual stressors of global warming and eutrophication, the depletion of dissolved oxygen in lakes has become increasingly severe. However, the critical mechanism by which the effects of climate change on dissolved oxygen dynamics depend on lake trophic status remains inadequately understood. Based on long-term monitoring data from Lake Ulansuhai, this study employed piecewise structural equation modeling to elucidate the cascading effects of climatic factors and eutrophication on dissolved oxygen dynamics. The results reveal that dissolved oxygen dynamics are primarily governed by physical processes, with wind speed serving as the dominant positive driver by enhancing surface reaeration. The effect of air temperature exhibits a pronounced trophic-state dependence: under low-nutrient conditions, warming directly increases dissolved oxygen by enhancing physical and metabolic rates. As nutrient levels increase and substrate limitation is alleviated, warming suppresses the gains from photosynthetic oxygen production by enhancing biological metabolic oxygen, driving a reversal in the temperature- dissolved oxygen relationship from positive synergy to negative antagonism. Meanwhile, hydrological changes showed no significant effects on either dissolved oxygen or nutrient loads, indicating negligible roles of dilution or external inputs under the lake's substantial environmental capacity and long hydraulic retention time. These findings underscore that nutrient load reduction is a key management strategy for enhancing lake climate resilience.
Keywords:
Dissolved oxygen
Climate change
Nutrient loading
Ecosystem resilience
Oxygen production
Respiration metabolism
Journal
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6.3
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2.3W
Citations:
9.8W
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