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Divergent vegetation responses to recent warming and abrupt permafrost thaw across the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau during 2000‒2023
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DOI：10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.002.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Vegetation growth in the high altitudinal region such as the Qinghai‒Tibet plateau (QTP) is generally considered to be limited by air temperature, and warming has been reported to drive widespread vegetation greening. However, warming may also exacerbate soil water deficit and accelerate thermokarst development in the permafrost region. The extent to which these processes influence vegetation growth in the QTP remains unclear. Here, we assessed recent vegetation changes in the Three-Rivers Headwaters Region (TRHR), a representative permafrost region in the central and eastern QTP with ecological significance, through reconstructing a fine-resolution (30-m) Landsat vegetation greenness time series spanning 2000‒2023. Our results indicate that recent warming and thermokarst development has caused a complex vegetation browning and greening pattern across the TRHR. Substantial (11.1%‒15.2%) vegetation browning was observed at dense vegetation areas at lower-elevation non-permafrost zone, mainly attributed to warming induced soil water deficit. Conversely, dominant vegetation greening (44.6%) and limited (4.2%) vegetation browning was observed at higher-elevation permafrost zone with more sparse vegetation covers. Moreover, in the permafrost areas, thermokarst landscapes are becoming hotspots of vegetation greening and browning. Thermokarst lake areas show strong vegetation greening trends, with largest positive vegetation greenness trends (0.32%‒0.34% per year) in recently drained lake areas, while retrogressive thaw slump areas show abrupt vegetation losses. With continued strong warming, increasing soil water limitation and intensifying thermokarst activity will likely create a more complex vegetation greening and browning pattern in the QTP region, implying vulnerable permafrost and ecosystem stability under global warming with potentially large climate feedbacks.
Keywords:
Vegetation greening
Abrupt permafrost thaw
Thermokarst lake
Soil water stress
Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau
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