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Diverse response of extreme sea levels amplification and more vulnerable deltas/islands in the northern South China Sea by the end of the 21st century
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DOI：10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.021.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
To bridge the gap between large-scale climate projections and local adaptation, it is critical to quantify how future extreme sea levels (ESLs) are disproportionately amplified across mainland deltas and offshore islands. Utilizing a high-resolution hydrodynamic framework driven by over 1300 synthetic tropical cyclones, we project 100-year ESLs and coastal vulnerability for the northern South China Sea (NSCS) under scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Our findings reveal that the amplification of ESLs is strongly heterogeneous across three sub-regions—East, Central, and West—rather than uniformly across the basin. Compared to SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5 drives the greatest elevation of 100-year ESLs over shallow, semi-enclosed shelves and mainland deltas, with the western and eastern sub-regions experiencing average amplifications of 35% and 30%, respectively. In contrast, deep-water offshore islands only increase 18%. However, hazard frequencies intensify drastically across all regions: the 100-year ESLs under SSP2-4.5 shortens to a 40-year return period across large mainland coastal sectors under SSP5-8.5, and plummets to a 20-year event for low-lying islands. Vulnerability also escalates unevenly, with high-risk zones expanding most in the West, where high-risk zones nearly double in spatial extent (from 3.4% to 6.7%). Meanwhile, low-lying islands exhibit disproportionately high vulnerability despite lower absolute ESLs. These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted coastal adaptation strategies that address the distinct vulnerabilities of mainland deltas and offshore islands.
Keywords:
Climate change
Extreme sea levels
Coastal vulnerability
Northern South China Sea
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