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Do Large Probabilities Explain Better?

delete2022-04-01
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DOI:10.1086/392786delete
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摘要

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It is widely thought that the size of a probability makes no difference to the quality of a probabilistic explanation. I argue that explanatory practice in statistical physics, past and present, belies this claim. The claim has gained currency only because of an impoverished conception of the nature of probabilistic processes and an unwarranted assumption that all probabilistic explanations have a single form.
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