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Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability?

delete2016-01-14
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OA
AI
M
McLean, R. David *
P
Pontiff, Jeffrey
DOI:10.1111/jofi.12365delete
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摘要

摘要

En 中文
We study the out-of-sample and post-publication return predictability of 97 variables shown to predict cross-sectional stock returns. Portfolio returns are 26% lower out-of-sample and 58% lower post-publication. The out-of-sample decline is an upper bound estimate of data mining effects. We estimate a 32% (58%-26%) lower return from publication-informed trading. Post-publication declines are greater for predictors with higher in-sample returns, and returns are higher for portfolios concentrated in stocks with high idiosyncratic risk and low liquidity. Predictor portfolios exhibit post-publication increases in correlations with other published-predictor portfolios. Our findings suggest that investors learn about mispricing from academic publications.
Keyword:
CROSS-SECTION
COSTLY ARBITRAGE
RISK
VOLATILITY
GROWTH
LIMITS
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期刊

Journal of Finance 封面图
Journal of Finance
IF:
9.5
论文数:
4.0K
被引数:
5.0W

机构

B
Boston College
学者数:
5.5K
论文数: 5.2K
被引数: 8.8K
D
DePaul University
学者数:
1.5K
论文数: 1.5K
被引数: 1.5K
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