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Does private mean better? Evaluating economic benefits and safety outcomes of a state highway concession
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DOI：10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101770.png)
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Abstract
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This paper explores the impact of road infrastructure investment through the concession model in São Paulo on local economies and road safety. Utilizing difference-in-differences and synthetic control methodologies, our study assesses the effects of such investments on residential electricity consumption and the incidence of fatal road accidents. Our findings reveal a positive impact of highway concessions on local income, with an increase ranging between 3.0% and 5.0%, or R$ 1266 to R$ 2161 in GDP per capita, based on the correlation between GDP and electricity consumption. Moreover, a 50% reduction in fatal accidents following the concession is observed. Last, we calculate the net present value (NPV) of the economic impact resulting from reduced accidents on concession-operated roads, estimated at over R$ 444 million across the concession period. The results suggest a substantial positive economic impact of public and private switching services.
Keywords:
road infrastructure investment
highway concessions
economic impact
road safety
difference-in-differences
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