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Drivers of Marine Heat Waves in the North Pacific Ocean
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DOI：10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0308.1.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Marine heat waves (MHWs) are extreme events characterized by prolonged periods of unusually high sea surface temperatures. The North Pacific has been a focus of MHW research due to the severe ecosystem impacts of several events in the 2010s. These events are influenced by global warming and climate variability patterns like El Ni & ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). We identify MHWs in the Community Earth System Model, version 2, large ensemble using an object-based tracking algorithm (Ocetrac) and classify them via hierarchical clustering, focusing on five dominant midlatitude types. All types are initiated by reduced wind stress, which results in suppressed ocean cooling. This initial warming is then amplified by a cloud-shortwave feedback making net surface heat flux anomalies the largest contributor to peak intensity. While this two-phase atmospheric forcing is consistent, the dominant heat flux component and large-scale precursors vary regionally. Enhanced shortwave radiation drives peak warming in the subarctic northwest Pacific (favored during negative ENSO/PDO) and northeast Pacific (favored during positive ENSO/PDO). The three other types are driven primarily by weaker cooling via reduction in evaporation. The subtropical northeast Pacific and central Pacific types are associated with positive PDO conditions, while northwest Pacific types are associated with negative phases of the PDO/ENSO. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Marine heat waves (MHWs), prolonged periods of anomalously high sea surface temperatures, have been associated with biodiversity loss, species mortality, altered community structures, and changes in marine species' geographical ranges. Analyzing MHWs in a large climate model dataset enables a robust characterization of different types of MHW events in the North Pacific and allows characterization of local atmospheric drivers and linkages to large-scale climate variability modes such as the Pacific decadal oscillation and El Ni & ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation.
Keywords:
Pacific Ocean
Atmosphere-ocean interaction
Climate
Extreme events
Ensembles
Climate variability
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