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Driving factors of China–ASEAN fisheries trade: a multi-dimensional analysis from the perspective of the maritime community with a shared future
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DOI：10.3389/fsufs.2026.1898667.png)
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Abstract
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From the perspective of building a maritime community with a shared future; against the backdrop of the deepening integration of the China–ASEAN Free Trade Area and the continuous release of policy dividends of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership; fisheries trade has become a vital component of regional economic cooperation and an important link in the sustainable development of global fisheries. Nevertheless; academic controversies still remain regarding the differentiated driving roles and relative importance of economic; institutional; and geographical factors in China’s fisheries exports to ASEAN countries. Based on the panel data of China’s fisheries exports to 10 ASEAN countries from 2013 to 2025; this paper constructs a time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model to empirically investigate the influencing effects and relative contribution of the three dimensional factors. The empirical results indicate that economic factors act as the primary driving force; with per capita GDP and foreign exchange reserves exerting prominent positive impacts whose influence intensity is far greater than that of geographical factors. Institutional factors present a significant negative constraining effect; revealing that bilateral institutional compatibility serves as a critical restrictive condition for fisheries trade. Geographical factors also impose an obvious inhibitory impact on fisheries trade; yet their influence is weaker than economic and institutional factors and can be partially offset by optimizing the institutional environment. In addition; fisheries trade efficiency exhibits distinct time-varying characteristics and obvious country heterogeneity; and there remains considerable untapped export potential for China’s fisheries trade with Singapore; Indonesia; Thailand and Malaysia. This study clarifies the hierarchical structure and primary-secondary relationship among economic; institutional and geographical driving factors; and provides empirical evidence and decision-making references for promoting high-quality and sustainable fisheries cooperation between China and ASEAN under the framework of the maritime community with a shared future.
Keywords:
economic
institutional
China–ASEAN
fishery trade
geographical
maritime community with a shared future
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