Dynamic inertia security analysis under uncertain power variability

Hua Wei

doi:10.1016/j.epsr.2025.111565

Dynamic inertia security analysis under uncertain power variability

2025-04-10

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AI

DOI：10.1016/j.epsr.2025.111565

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In modern power systems, the integration of renewable energy sources (RESs) leads to increased uncertainty and reduced system inertia. The provision of inertia from RESs also adds uncertainty to system inertia, so it is important to study the impact of inertia uncertainty on frequency stability to ensure power system stability and security. To address the problem that how inertia uncertainty affects system frequency, this paper proposes a dynamic inertia security analysis method, integrating the probabilistic analysis method and the stochastic differential equations (SDEs), for inertia uncertainty analysis under uncertain power variability (UPV). A stochastic process is used to model UPV, and SDEs are used to model frequency dynamic under UPV accordingly. A frequency stability possibility index that includes frequency deviation and rate of change of frequency (RoCoF) is proposed for frequency stability analysis. The trajectories of the frequency are generated using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method considering dynamic inertia and UPV. The dynamic inertia security analysis is conducted to further analyze frequency stability. The proposed method is verified by a typical system frequency response (SFR) model and IEEE 39-bus system on Simulink.

Keyword:

Inertia uncertainty

Stochastic differential equations

Uncertain power variability

Frequency stability

Dynamic inertia security analysis under uncertain power variability

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