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Election forecasting: Too far out?
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DOI：10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.12.002.png)
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摘要
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We consider two criteria for evaluating election forecasts: accuracy (precision) and lead (distance from the event), specifically the trade-off between the two in poll-based forecasts. We evaluate how much lead still allows prediction of the election outcome. How much further back can we go, supposing we tolerate a little more error? Our analysis offers estimates of the optimal lead time for election forecasts, based on a dataset of over 26,000 vote intention polls from 338 elections in 44 countries between 1942 and 2014. We find that optimization of a forecast is possible, and typically occurs two to three months before the election, but can be influenced by the arrangement of political institutions. To demonstrate how our optimization guidelines perform in practice, we consider recent elections in the UK, the US, and France. (C) 2020 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keyword:
Polling
The timeline of elections
Forecast
Lead time
Accuracy
Cross-national
Political institutions
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