.png){kind=icon}
返回
Election forecasts: Cracking the Danish case
.png){kind=icon}
PRE
AI
DOI：10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.09.007.png)
.png){kind=icon}
原文求助.png){kind=icon}
分享.png){kind=icon}
收藏
摘要
En 中文
Election forecasting models based on voting theories and estimated via regression analysis are routinely available for virtually all advanced industrial democracies. Denmark, however, offers an exception, for no such prediction equations have been published on the Danish case. This absence has sometimes been attributed to the puzzling nature of economic voting there, along with the complexity of its multi-party system, which renders formulation of the dependent variable problematic. We attempt to overcome these obstacles, offering a synthetic forecasting model for Danish national election outcomes, 1964-2015. The regression model, based on the variables of economic growth and vote intention, performs well, by various tests. Finally, we apply it, ex ante fashion, to the 2019 contest, where the prediction favored the Social Democratic led coalition, an outcome that came to pass. (C) 2020 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keyword:
Election forecasting
Economic voting
Danish elections
AI总结
对已上传原文的论文进行重点信息的提取，主要内容包括：简要概述、研究摘要、背景介绍、关键亮点、图文解析、展望与总结。
期刊
IF:
7.1
论文数:
3.1K
被引数:
9.9K
机构
引用论文
.png){kind=icon}
查看更多内容