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Enhanced Bayesian Network framework with imprecise probabilities for modelling degradation in concrete structures of radioactive waste disposals accounting for uncertainties due to climate change
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DOI：10.1016/j.strusafe.2026.102718.png)
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Abstract
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• Development of an enhanced Bayesian Network (eBN) modelling framework for long-term risk assessment of concrete structures in radioactive waste disposals. • Incorporating aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties by introducing continuous nodes for relevant parameters in the degradation processes of concrete structures. • Accounting for epistemic uncertainties in climate change projections through the adoption of imprecise probabilities. • Demonstration of the capabilities of the eBN-based framework to support informed licensing decisions through multi-scenario risk assessment.
Keywords:
Radioactive waste disposal
Concrete structure
Chemical corrosion
Climate change
Structural reliability analysis
Risk assessment
Enhanced Bayesian networks
Imprecise probabilities
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