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Estimating economic potential for renewable energy using the RETScreen Expert method in archipelago areas
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DOI：10.1080/15567249.2026.2711113.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Archipelago regions face significant challenges in meeting electricity demand due to their high dependence on diesel-based power generation, expensive electricity distribution systems, and limited inter-island grid integration. These conditions increase the urgency of developing economically feasible and sustainable renewable energy systems. This study evaluates the economic potential of solar photovoltaic power plants (SPP) and wind power plants (WPP) in Kepulauan Banyak, Indonesia, using a RETScreen Expert-based techno-economic assessment approach. The analysis considers three project lifetime scenarios of 20, 30, and 40 years and incorporates sensitivity analysis under economic and technical uncertainty, including variations in capital cost, electricity tariff, discount rate, and wind speed. The results indicate that WPP consistently demonstrates superior economic performance compared to SPP across all project scenarios based on net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and levelized cost of energy (LCoE). A sensitivity analysis revealed that electricity tariffs and wind speed variability are the most influential factors affecting project feasibility. Although the average surface wind speed is relatively low, hub-height wind speed adjustments significantly improve the estimated wind energy potential and project viability. The study further demonstrates that renewable energy implementation in archipelago regions is influenced not only by resource availability but also by logistics, infrastructure limitations, policy support, and long-term component degradation. By integrating sensitivity analysis, resource variability assessment, and policy implications, this study offers a more comprehensive framework for renewable energy evaluation in remote island regions. These findings may support regional energy planning, renewable energy transition policies, and diesel reduction strategies in archipelago areas.
Keywords:
Archipelago
energy potential
renewable energy
RETScreen Expert
techno-economic
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