Evaluating Impact Using Time-Series Data

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2020.11.001

Evaluating Impact Using Time-Series Data

2021-03-01

84

OA

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William J. Sutherland

J

Julia P. G. Jones

DOI：10.1016/j.tree.2020.11.001

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Abstract

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Humanity's impact on the environment is increasing, as are strategies to conserve biodiversity, but a lack of understanding about how interventions affect ecological and conservation outcomes hampers decision-making. Time series are often used to assess impacts, but ecologists tend to compare average values from before to after an impact; overlooking the potential for the intervention to elicit a change in trend. Without methods that allow for a range of responses, erroneous conclusions can be drawn, especially for large, multi-time-series datasets, which are increasingly available. Drawing on literature in other disciplines and pioneering work in ecology, we present a standardised framework to robustly assesses how interventions, like natural disasters or conservation policies, affect ecological time series.

Keywords:

SEGMENTED REGRESSION

PROTECTED AREAS

BACI

FRAGMENTATION

PROGRAM

ECOLOGY

DESIGNS

TERM

Evaluating Impact Using Time-Series Data

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