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Explainable Machine Learning-Based Urban Waterlogging Prediction Framework
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AI
DOI：10.3390/urbansci10030156.png)
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摘要
En 中文
Urban waterlogging has become a critical challenge to urban sustainability under the combined pressures of rapid urbanization and increasingly frequent extreme weather events. However, traditional predictive models struggle to achieve real-time, point-specific early warning effectively, primarily due to the interference of redundant high-dimensional data and the inability to handle severe data imbalance. This study proposes a lightweight and interpretable machine learning framework for real-time waterlogging hotspot prediction, based on a multi-dimensional feature space. Specifically, we implement a Lasso-based mechanism to distill 37 multi-source variables into five core determinants. This process effectively isolates dominant environmental drivers while filtering noise. To further overcome the recall bottleneck, we propose a Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique based on Weighted Distance and Cleaning (SMOTE-WDC) algorithm that incorporates weighted feature distances and density-based noise cleaning. Validating the framework on datasets from Shenzhen (2023-2024), we demonstrate that the integrated Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) model integrated with this strategy achieves optimal performance using only five features, yielding an F1-score of 0.808 and an Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUC-PR) of 0.895. Notably, a Recall of 0.882 is attained, representing a 4.6% improvement over the baseline. This study contributes a cost-effective, high-sensitivity approach to disaster risk reduction, advancing predictive urban waterlogging management.
Keyword:
urban waterlogging
prediction
explainable machine learning
crisis management