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Extreme sea level changes along the China coast under rising sea levels in 1980–2024
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DOI：10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.013.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Extreme sea levels, driven by climate change, pose a critical threat to coastal areas. However, cutting-edge and comprehensive studies of extreme high and low sea level changes along the China coast are limited. Using robust tide gauge and multi-source data, this study analyses long-term changes in extreme sea levels and their correlation with changes in the mean sea level and tide characteristics, along with potential changes in the future. The China coastal sea level increased at 3.5 ± 0.3, 4.0 ± 0.3 and 4.7 ± 0.4 mm per year (p < 0.05) in 1980‒2024, 1993‒2024 and 2005‒2024, respectively, with an acceleration of 0.03 mm per year2 in 1980‒2024. In most areas, the 99.9th, 99th and 90th percentile extreme high sea levels rise faster than the mean sea level, except in Qinhuangdao, Longkou, Zhapo and Beihai, where the tidal range decreased. Nearly half of the tide gauges indicate a rise in the extreme high sea level, exceeding 4.6 mm per year in 1980‒2024. In comparison, the extreme low sea levels rise at a generally slower rate. The extreme sea level is significantly correlated with the mean tidal range (p < 0.05); this correlation is stronger in coastal areas with a large tidal range. Severe-impact extreme high sea level events during storm surges caused by tropical cyclones coincide with astronomical high tides and the seasonal high mean sea level.
Keywords:
sea level
tidal range
long-term trend
return period
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