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FLOW-DEPENDENT RELIABILITY A Path to More Skillful Ensemble Forecasts
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DOI：10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0027.1.png)
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Improving short-range flow-dependent reliability, which may provide a practical approach to increase forecast skill out to similar to 10 days, is discussed and illustrated for a specific flow situation associated with convection over North America and poor skill for Europe.
Keyword:
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION
ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTABILITY
DATA ASSIMILATION
CLIMATE MODELS
ERROR GROWTH
PART I
ECMWF
SYSTEM
PHYSICS
DECOMPOSITION
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3.7K
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2.7W
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