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Generalized Local-to-Unity Models
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DOI：10.3982/ECTA17944.png)
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We introduce a generalization of the popular local-to-unity model of time series persistence by allowing for p autoregressive (AR) roots and p - 1 moving average (MA) roots close to unity. This generalized local-to-unity model, GLTU(p), induces convergence of the suitably scaled time series to a continuous time Gaussian ARMA(p,p - 1) process on the unit interval. Our main theoretical result establishes the richness of this model class, in the sense that it can well approximate a large class of processes with stationary Gaussian limits that are not entirely distinct from the unit root benchmark. We show that Campbell and Yogo's (2006) popular inference method for predictive regressions fails to control size in the GLTU(2) model with empirically plausible parameter values, and we propose a limited-information Bayesian framework for inference in the GLTU(p) model and apply it to quantify the uncertainty about the half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity.
Keyword:
Continuous time ARMA process
convergence
approximability
期刊
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7.1
论文数:
3.0K
被引数:
4.3W
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分享收藏分享收藏ON CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE ROOTS AND PREDICTIVE REGRESSION关于自回归根和预测回归的置信区间.png)
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