.png){kind=icon}
返回
Generating Synthetic Streamflow Forecasts with Specified Precision
.png){kind=icon}
PRE
AI
DOI：10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000915.png)
.png){kind=icon}
原文求助.png){kind=icon}
分享.png){kind=icon}
收藏
摘要
En 中文
Synthetic hydrologic forecasts are often needed to evaluate water resources planning and management strategies when appropriate historical forecasts are not available. Synthetic forecasts can be generated to evaluate system performance with existing forecast products over historical periods when they were not available, or with different forecast products that do not yet exist. Synthetic forecast generation procedures should produce forecasts that are realistic and have the desired statistical properties. Two synthetic forecast generation techniques are proposed that create a time series of forecasts with (1)the desired mean, (2)the correct variance, and (3)the desired forecast precision. One uses a classical stochastic hydrology approach, and the other the generalized maintenance of variance extension (GMOVE) concept using historical hydrologic series as input. A critique is provided of several published synthetic forecast generation algorithms that produced unrealistic results. The GMOVE methodology is used in a stochastic optimization model of a single reservoir hydropower system. Using forecasts of varying precision, the example illustrates the ability of more precise forecasts to improve system operations.
Keyword:
DYNAMIC-PROGRAMMING MODELS
CLOSED-LOOP CONTROL
HIGH ASWAN-DAM
RESERVOIR OPERATION
CLIMATE FORECASTS
OPTIMIZATION
UNCERTAINTY
MANAGEMENT
FUTURE
AI总结
对已上传原文的论文进行重点信息的提取，主要内容包括：简要概述、研究摘要、背景介绍、关键亮点、图文解析、展望与总结。
期刊
IF:
4.7
论文数:
8.1K
被引数:
1.6W
机构
引用论文
Reservoir optimization using sampling SDP with ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasts.png)
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGYIF6.3
PREAI
分享收藏Effect of hypertonic versus normotonic resuscitation on intracranial pressure after combined head injury and hemorrhagic shock高渗性复苏与等渗性复苏对合并头部损伤和失血性休克后颅内压的影响
PREAI
分享收藏
分享收藏Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations
OAAI
OAAI分享收藏
查看更多内容