Global vegetation production may decrease in this century due to rising atmospheric dryness

Shangrong Lin

doi:10.1038/s41559-025-02885-3

2025-10-23

PRE

Wenping Yuan (Wenping Yuan) *

DOI：10.1038/s41559-025-02885-3

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之前的地球系统模型预测表明，大气CO2浓度上升将通过CO2施肥效应刺激全球植被生产。本研究表明，由气候变暖驱动的大气干燥度增加将显著抵消这一效应。通过全球涡度协方差站点的测量数据和基于过程模型，我们预测全球植被总初级生产量（GPP）将在21世纪中叶左右达到峰值，随后下降。全球GPP的峰值预计仅比当前增加5.4±0.5%。GPP增长停滞的现象在热带地区更为显著。此外，由两种非CO2温室气体（CH4和N2O）导致的大气干燥度增加在GPP变化中起着重要作用。这些气体引发气候变暖和大气干燥，但与CO2不同，缺乏施肥效应。本研究强调了气候变暖引发的大气干燥度显著降低了陆地植被生产，可能限制未来的陆地碳汇。大气二氧化碳浓度上升可能刺激植物光合作用和生产。然而，通过全球涡度协方差站点的测量数据，本研究表明未来持续增加的大气干燥度将抵消大部分施肥效应。

Keyword:

CO2 fertilization effect

atmospheric dryness

global vegetation production

climate warming

gross primary production

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Nature Ecology and Evolution

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14.5

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2.8K

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Beijing Normal University

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Tianjin Normal University

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chinese academy of sciences

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