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Globally and intergenerationally unequal exposure to hourly heat extremes
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DOI：10.1038/s41558-026-02724-8.png)
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Abstract
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Heat extremes are intensifying under climate change, yet these events are traditionally identified using daily temperature metrics, which fail to capture the full dynamics of heat events. Here we present a global assessment of hourly heat extremes (HHEs) in summer, and show that HHEs are emerging worldwide and exhibit marked unequal exposure across regions and generations. Under a high-emissions scenario, global HHEs are projected to increase fourfold and their population exposure to grow sixfold by late century. Each hot day will gain about four hot hours, and a further three hot hours will occur on non-hot days, which daily metrics overlook. Low- and middle-income countries bear more than three-quarters of the current and future heat exposure, and successive generations, particularly in low-income countries, face much higher lifetime exposure than earlier cohorts. These findings underscore the urgent need for hourly-scale risk assessments, public preparedness and designing equitable strategies in a warming world. The authors quantify the global emergence of hourly heat extremes (HHEs), highlighting exposure overlooked by daily metrics. HHEs will increase fourfold by the end of the century under high emissions, with low- and middle-income countries, as well as successive generations, facing disproportionate exposure.
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