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Good probabilistic forecasters: The 'consumers' perspective
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DOI：10.1016/0169-2070(95)00636-2.png)
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摘要
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There is an established literature describing how probabilistic forecasts, and hence forecasters, should be evaluated. The present paper takes a different and heretofore neglected perspective on evaluation. It addresses how those who receive and use probabilistic predictions-forecast 'consumers'-appraise these assessments. Results indicate that there are reliable and important differences between subjective and formal evaluation principles. Among the distinctive features of common subjective appraisal strategies are: (a) an emphasis on judgments being categorically 'correct'; (b) special attention to forecast extremeness; (c) the desire for good explanations of forecasts; and (d) the sensitivity of appraisals to how pertinent information is displayed to the evaluator. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.
Keyword:
probablistic forecasts
subjective forecasts
forecast evaluation
forecast appraisal
subjective probability
calibration
scoring rules
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