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Government bond issuance surprises and the term structure of interest rates in the UK
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DOI：10.1016/j.jbankfin.2026.107715.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
How does the additional debt issued by the government affect the term structure of interest rates? In this paper, we examine the impact of unexpected government bond issuance by leveraging the institutional framework of the UK government bond primary market. Our findings indicate that higher-than-expected issuance exerts upward pressure on interest rates by increasing both real term premia and inflation risk premia. These effects are amplified during periods of market stress, with some evidence suggesting that yield reactions become more localized under such conditions.
Keywords:
government bond issuance
term structure of interest rates
unexpected issuance
interest rate dynamics
inflation risk premia
Journal
J
IF:
3.8
Papers:
65
Citations:
0
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