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Household vehicle transactions during and after the pandemic: a panel data analysis
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DOI：10.1007/s11116-026-10774-2.png)
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Abstract
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This paper investigates the factors affecting household vehicle transactions, including additions, removals, and replacements, in the past (spring 2020 to fall 2023) and in the anticipated future (fall 2023 to fall 2026). Using a two-wave panel dataset (n = 1612) from surveys conducted in the U.S., we explore a broad set of hypotheses concerning vehicle transaction dynamics over time. An integrated choice and latent variable model identifies the effects of latent attitudes, sociodemographic characteristics, life events, work arrangements, and COVID-related health concerns in shaping vehicle transaction decisions. Results show that novelty-seeking individuals were more likely to engage in future vehicle transactions, whether by increasing, decreasing, or replacing vehicles. Younger adults, households with children, and those experiencing an increase in the number of children or adults showed a higher likelihood of acquiring vehicles, likely in response to a growing travel needs. Transitions into the workforce and rising household income further increased the likelihood of vehicle acquisition. An increase in commute frequency reduced the likelihood of vehicle shedding during the pandemic and also increased the likelihood of post-pandemic vehicle acquisition, likely due to a rebound in demand for non-commuting trips. COVID-related health concerns discouraged vehicle shedding during the pandemic. Importantly, past vehicle transactions strongly predicted future behaviors. Households that added vehicles during the pandemic were likely to either increase, decrease, or replace vehicles again. In contrast, those that shed vehicles tended to reacquire vehicles, and those who replaced vehicles were more inclined to do so again in the future.
Keywords:
Vehicle transaction
COVID-19 pandemic
Panel data
Integrated choice and latent variable model
Life event
Work arrangement
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